The world is being urged to prepare for a potentially exceptional El Niño, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate phenomenon is strengthening rapidly and could bring heightened risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world.
According to the latest WMO update released on September 3, El Niño is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a very strong event over the coming months. Forecasts indicate that the phenomenon could reach its peak towards the end of 2026, while its influence is expected to continue into 2027.
The latest assessment has prompted renewed calls for governments, emergency agencies and climate-sensitive industries to prepare for potentially disruptive weather conditions.
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El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific
l Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. The change can influence atmospheric circulation and alter temperature and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
The latest measurements show that ocean temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region have increased substantially.
WMO reported that the average temperature anomaly reached about 1.5°C above normal during May-July 2026 and approximately 2°C above normal in July. Weekly measurements later climbed to between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average during late July and mid-August.
Scientists are also seeing exceptionally warm water below the surface of the Pacific. In some areas, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
These ocean conditions are providing additional energy for El Niño to strengthen during the months ahead.
El Niño could become a very strong event
The WMO says the current event is expected to develop into a very strong El Niño, with its strongest phase likely towards the end of this year.
Forecast models also show an exceptionally high likelihood – close to 100% – that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
This does not mean that every country will experience extreme weather at the same time or in the same way.
El Niño affects different regions differently, depending on geography, season and other climate influences. Conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans can also strengthen, weaken or modify the typical effects associated with El Niño.
Why the UN is concerned
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned about the potential consequences of the developing event, describing the phenomenon as being “supersized” and linking it to growing concerns about extreme weather.
The warning comes as communities around the world are already dealing with heatwaves, floods, droughts and other climate-related hazards.
A powerful El Niño can shift rainfall and temperature patterns across large areas, increasing the likelihood of certain types of extreme weather.
The WMO says the latest forecasts point towards a significant increase in above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September-November 2026.
That could create additional challenges for communities already facing unusually warm conditions.
Heat could become a major concern
One of the most immediate concerns is the potential for higher temperatures.
El Niño can contribute to increased global temperatures by transferring additional heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
The latest WMO seasonal forecast indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world’s land areas during the September-November period.
For communities, this can increase pressure on electricity networks, water supplies and health services, particularly during prolonged periods of extreme heat.
Older people, young children and people working outdoors can be particularly vulnerable during periods of severe heat.
Drought and flooding risks could increase
El Niño does not simply mean hotter weather.
Its influence on atmospheric circulation can produce significant changes in rainfall patterns, creating drier conditions in some areas and wetter conditions in others.
That creates a complicated global picture.
Some agricultural regions could face insufficient rainfall, while other communities may experience heavy rainfall and flooding.
For farmers, these changes can affect planting schedules, crop production and access to water. For governments, they can increase pressure on emergency response systems and infrastructure.
The WMO is therefore emphasising the importance of using seasonal forecasts and local weather information to understand what the developing El Niño could mean for individual regions.
What could it mean for agriculture?
Agriculture is one of the sectors most exposed to changes in temperature and rainfall.
A prolonged dry period can reduce soil moisture and water availability, while excessive rainfall can damage crops, erode soil and disrupt harvesting.
Changes in agricultural production can also have wider economic consequences.
Reduced crop yields may contribute to higher food prices, while disruptions to transportation and supply chains can affect markets well beyond the areas directly experiencing extreme weather.
This is why the WMO is encouraging governments and climate-sensitive sectors to use climate information to prepare ahead of potential impacts.
India and the Indian Ocean will be closely watched
The developing El Niño is also important for India and the wider South Asian region because Pacific Ocean conditions can influence large-scale atmospheric circulation and interact with the Indian monsoon system.
However, a strong El Niño does not automatically mean the same rainfall outcome across all parts of India.
The WMO stresses that El Niño’s impacts depend on location, season and interactions with other climate drivers.
One important factor currently being monitored is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The latest WMO forecast indicates that a positive IOD phase is expected to develop, with a seasonal average of around 0.9°C for September-November 2026.
The interaction between El Niño, the IOD and other ocean conditions could influence regional weather patterns in ways that are difficult to predict from El Niño alone.
For India, farmers, businesses and policymakers will therefore need to continue following updated forecasts rather than relying on a single seasonal prediction.
What about New Zealand?
New Zealand is also likely to remain attentive to developments in the Pacific.
Large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns can influence New Zealand’s rainfall and temperature patterns, although the exact effects can vary between regions and seasons.
For households, businesses and communities, the key message is preparation and awareness.
People should continue relying on official New Zealand weather forecasts and emergency information for local conditions rather than assuming that a global El Niño warning directly predicts their local weather.
Climate change adds another layer of risk
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not itself caused by human-driven climate change.
However, the current event is developing against a background of long-term global warming.
That matters because unusually warm ocean and atmospheric conditions can add to existing temperature extremes.
The WMO’s latest update says exceptionally warm tropical Pacific waters are supporting the further intensification of El Niño, while other ocean conditions may also influence how the event develops.
The combination makes preparedness increasingly important.
Governments urged to strengthen preparation
The WMO is working with national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen early-warning and preparedness measures.
The organisation has highlighted sectors including agriculture, health, energy and water resources as areas that may require particular attention.
Early preparation can help governments and communities reduce potential damage.
That can include monitoring water supplies, reviewing emergency plans, protecting vulnerable populations, preparing health systems for heat and ensuring communities have access to timely weather information.
The WMO has described the developing event as requiring an exceptional level of preparation because of its potential scale.
Disclaimer:This article is for general news and information purposes. Weather and climate forecasts can change as new data becomes available. Readers should follow official local authorities for weather warnings and emergency guidance.
